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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still