A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
